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Rodez 0–2 Dijon

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Jan 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Rainville

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win40%2.46
Draw33%2.90
Dijon win27%3.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dijon −0.2553%1.86
Rodez −0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.44
Over33%2.88

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Ahmad Toure Ngouyamsa · Dijon
27'⚽Daniel Congré · Dijon
37'🟨Pierre Bardy · Rodez
43'🟨Adilson Malanda · Rodez
55'⚽Mihai Alexandru Dobre · Dijon
59'🟨Julien Celestine · Rodez
88'🟨Pierre Bardy · Rodez
88'🟥Pierre Bardy · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots9
1On target5
6Corners4
19Fouls19
4Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezDijon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.510.55
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days2390.00167.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.193.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.19
dominance (last 5)0.440.60
elo1476.391444.51
elo momentum (last 5)10.2117.47
eye test v1-0.680.74
eye trend v1-0.490.11
first sub minute (last 10)63.7050.50
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v1—0.72
league points30.0023.00
league rank8.0017.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2072.80
possession avg (last 5)41.8052.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.240.29
season ppg1.431.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.605.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.6014.60
skill v1-0.75-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.70
sot for avg (last 3)1.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.60
squad age26.2426.03
state index-0.040.10
sterile dominance v1-0.51-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.210.28
threat rate (last 3)0.150.26
threat rate (last 5)0.240.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20