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Sochaux 3–2 Caen

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Jan 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Petit

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win48%2.01
Draw31%3.07
Caen win21%4.71

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen −0.551%1.88
Sochaux −0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.53
Over38%2.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Anthony Gonçalves · Caen
14'🟨Marvin Senaya · Sochaux
16'🟨Valentin Henry · Sochaux
17'⚽Nuno Da Costa · Caen
28'⚽ (pen)Jessy Deminguet · Caen
37'🟨Nuno Da Costa · Caen
40'🟨Yann Kitala · Sochaux
52'⚽Aldo Kalulu · Sochaux
60'🟨Nuno Da Costa · Caen
60'🟥Nuno Da Costa · Caen
64'🟨Tony Mauricio · Sochaux
66'⚽Alan Virginius · Sochaux
67'🟨Jessy Deminguet · Caen
69'🟨Jonathan Rivierez · Caen
83'🟨Abdallah Ndour · Sochaux
90'🟨Maxime Do Couto · Sochaux
90'🟨Aldo Kalulu · Sochaux
90'⚽Maxime Do Couto · Sochaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
19Shots5
7On target2
4Corners1
14Fouls14
7Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.470.68
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days1141.00228.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.09
dominance (last 5)0.580.45
elo1515.391426.83
elo momentum (last 5)7.5215.71
eye test v10.31-0.91
eye trend v10.130.16
first sub minute (last 10)59.3063.00
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v1—0.73
league points37.0023.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4080.20
possession avg (last 5)54.2045.80
rest days7.1724.93
scorer concentration0.280.33
season ppg1.761.15
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.00
skill v10.350.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.40
squad age27.9125.48
state index0.10-0.13
sterile dominance v10.380.29
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.230.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00