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Rodez 0–0 Bastia

← Ligue 2 2021 Β· Tue, Dec 21, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Schneider

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win40%2.47
Draw32%3.00
Bastia win28%3.65

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia βˆ’0.2553%1.85
Rodez βˆ’0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.44
Over33%2.97

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Christophe Vincent · Bastia
50'🟨Adilson Malanda · Rodez
54'🟨Stephen Quemper · Bastia
71'🟨Lucas Buades · Rodez
74'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Bastia

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots9
2On target3
2Corners4
13Fouls20
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezBastia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.510.56
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days2365.0081.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.07
dominance (last 5)0.490.44
elo1496.761497.94
elo momentum (last 5)36.049.70
eye test v1-0.29-0.54
eye trend v10.320.04
first sub minute (last 10)65.0063.80
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.15
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.760.73
league points29.0022.00
league rank7.0014.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0046.00
rest days8.0010.07
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg1.531.16
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2010.20
skill v1-0.74-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age25.9128.00
state index0.48-0.10
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.300.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60