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Amiens 4–1 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Dec 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win47%2.05
Draw30%3.25
Grenoble win23%4.28

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble −0.552%1.86
Amiens −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.50
Over35%2.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'⚽Tolu Arokodare · Amiens
44'⚽Tolu Arokodare · Amiens
51'⚽Aliou Badji · Amiens
53'🟨Achille Anani · Grenoble
56'⚽Aliou Badji · Amiens
70'🟨Anthony Belmonte · Grenoble
85'⚽Achille Anani · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots10
7On target1
3Corners1
8Fouls9
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.54
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.660.46
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days193.0010.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.281.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.08
dominance (last 5)0.530.49
elo1458.581496.66
elo momentum (last 5)30.96-22.02
eye test v10.110.12
eye trend v10.370.35
first sub minute (last 10)64.3060.70
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v1—0.71
league points18.0024.00
league rank18.009.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2082.00
possession avg (last 5)52.4055.00
rest days7.927.92
scorer concentration0.200.21
season ppg1.001.33
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.809.60
skill v10.480.82
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.40
squad age25.2927.18
state index0.46-0.29
sterile dominance v10.731.01
threat rate (last 10)0.210.18
threat rate (last 3)0.210.17
threat rate (last 5)0.190.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00