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Dijon 3–1 AJ Auxerre

← Ligue 2 2021 · Mon, Nov 22, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: N. Rainville

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win35%2.75
Dijon win35%2.77
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre +050%1.93
Dijon +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Valentin Jacob · Dijon
38'⚽Aurelien Scheidler · Dijon
41'🟨Jubal · AJ Auxerre
60'🟨Birama Touré · AJ Auxerre
61'⚽Gaëtan Charbonnier · AJ Auxerre
79'⚽Yassine Benzia · Dijon
87'🟨Senou Coulibaly · Dijon
87'🟨Théo Pellenard · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
20Shots10
7On target7
5Corners6
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDijonAJ Auxerre
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.49
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gaston-Gérard
coach days113.00875.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.832.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.17
dominance (last 5)0.540.49
elo1427.041569.52
elo momentum (last 5)-2.138.60
eye test v1-0.180.21
eye trend v10.070.43
first sub minute (last 10)58.4065.90
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.590.75
league points16.0030.00
league rank19.003.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8079.40
possession avg (last 5)54.8051.20
rest days16.0716.24
scorer concentration0.310.38
season ppg1.001.88
shot diff avg (last 5)3.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.2011.00
skill v10.150.33
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age26.2427.86
state index-0.170.10
sterile dominance v10.070.43
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.300.24
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20