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Nimes 0–2 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2021 · Mon, Oct 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Paradis

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win38%2.60
Draw33%2.90
Ajaccio win30%3.32

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio −0.2555%1.77
Nimes −0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.49
Over35%2.74

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Gaëtan Courtet · Ajaccio
31'🟨Yanis Cimignani · Ajaccio
33'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
40'🟨Mounaim El Idrissy · Ajaccio
66'🟨Zinedine Ferhat · Nimes
90'🟨Kelyan Guessoum · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
8Shots12
2On target6
8Corners4
12Fouls21
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.630.60
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
coach days259.00474.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.002.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.802.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.541.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.13
dominance (last 5)0.420.60
elo1543.471475.75
elo momentum (last 5)-40.44-29.93
eye test v1-0.09-0.86
eye trend v1-0.23-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)62.5054.40
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.730.80
league points14.0019.00
league rank16.007.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2077.40
possession avg (last 5)53.6055.00
rest days16.2416.07
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.271.58
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.802.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.609.20
skill v10.650.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.60
squad age25.1726.22
state index-0.63-0.40
sterile dominance v10.750.90
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.170.16
threat rate (last 5)0.200.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20