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Caen 2–2 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Oct 16, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win41%2.35
Draw31%3.15
Le Havre AC win28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC −0.2551%1.91
Caen −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · Le Havre AC
32'⚽Alexandre Mendy · Caen
58'🟨Fernand Mayembo · Le Havre AC
58'⚽Mehdi Chahiri · Caen
66'🟨Khalid Boutaïb · Le Havre AC
68'⚽Pape Ibnou Ba · Le Havre AC
70'🟨Yahia Fofana · Le Havre AC
79'🟨Jessy Deminguet · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots7
3On target2
5Corners5
14Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.530.60
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days137.00838.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.201.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.04
dominance (last 5)0.570.48
elo1414.001530.33
elo momentum (last 5)-12.1934.14
eye test v10.19-0.19
eye trend v10.320.15
first sub minute (last 10)47.4060.80
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v1—0.91
league points14.0023.00
league rank16.002.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0072.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2041.20
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.400.40
season ppg1.271.92
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.009.80
skill v10.45-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age26.8026.19
state index-0.450.59
sterile dominance v10.05-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80