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Toulouse FC 2–3 Caen

← Ligue 2 2021 · Mon, Sep 27, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Varela

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win57%1.72
Draw26%3.72
Caen win18%5.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen −0.7550%1.95
Toulouse FC −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.81
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Franklin Wadja · Caen
15'⚽ (pen)Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC
17'⚽Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC
30'🟨Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC
32'🟨Alexandre Mendy · Caen
39'⚽ (og)Bafodé Diakité · Caen
45'⚽Jessy Deminguet · Caen
50'🟨Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC
90'🟨Rhys Healey · Toulouse FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score3
20Shots10
5On target4
6Corners3
16Fouls13
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToulouse FCCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.750.56
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium de Toulouse
coach days118.00118.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.741.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.15
dominance (last 5)0.570.57
elo1633.841409.30
elo momentum (last 5)29.16-21.78
eye test v10.66-0.49
eye trend v1-0.060.22
first sub minute (last 10)56.7047.10
form points (last 5)13.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.20
keeper form v10.820.78
league points23.0011.00
league rank1.0017.00
matches since blank18.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8081.40
possession avg (last 5)61.4054.20
rest days6.036.03
scorer concentration0.290.57
season ppg2.561.22
shot diff avg (last 5)3.402.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.8011.60
skill v11.400.71
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.20
squad age25.6326.29
state index1.01-0.72
sterile dominance v11.060.66
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00