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Grenoble 2–1 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Sep 11, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win37%2.59
Nimes win32%3.07
Draw31%3.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble +054%1.79
Nimes +046%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Leon Delpech · Nimes
48'🟨Adrien Monfray · Grenoble
54'⚽Mamadou Diallo · Grenoble
61'🟨Patrick Burner · Nimes
64'🟨Loris Néry · Grenoble
65'🟨Anthony Belmonte · Grenoble
65'🟨Karim Aribi · Nimes
74'🟨Pablo Martínez · Nimes
86'🟨Moussa Koné · Nimes
90'🟨David Henen · Grenoble
90'⚽David Henen · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots8
2On target3
12Corners3
11Fouls15
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.130.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.510.65
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days102.00222.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.002.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.792.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.02
dominance (last 5)0.470.50
elo1493.011583.90
elo momentum (last 5)-2.2418.60
eye test v1-1.150.11
eye trend v1-0.15-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)58.2063.00
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.18
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.68—
league points7.0012.00
league rank14.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6081.40
possession avg (last 5)47.6051.20
rest days14.0014.17
scorer concentration—0.29
season ppg1.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2010.60
skill v10.180.50
sot against avg (last 5)2.801.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.004.40
state index0.040.63
sterile dominance v10.420.55
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.19
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00