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Rodez 2–2 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Aug 28, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win51%1.88
Draw29%3.40
Dunkerque win20%5.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez −0.551%1.88
Dunkerque −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.64

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Julien Celestine · Rodez
19'🟨Malik Tchokounte · Dunkerque
23'⚽Nicolas Bruneel · Dunkerque
52'🟨Nicolas Bruneel · Dunkerque
58'⚽Clément Depres · Rodez
66'⚽Kevin Rocheteau · Dunkerque
80'⚽Lucas Buades · Rodez
90'🟨Clément Depres · Rodez
90'🟨Axel Maraval · Dunkerque

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots8
4On target2
4Corners1
15Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.510.70
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days2250.00484.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.24
dominance (last 5)0.600.54
elo1460.271393.68
elo momentum (last 5)13.55-40.15
eye test v10.36-1.06
eye trend v10.03-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)63.4055.80
form points (last 5)8.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
keeper form v1—0.63
league points8.002.00
league rank9.0019.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.009.00
matches since win0.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2073.80
possession avg (last 5)45.6051.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.50—
season ppg1.600.33
shot diff avg (last 5)3.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.609.00
skill v1-0.14-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.20
squad age25.8127.37
state index0.08-1.32
sterile dominance v1-0.280.43
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.260.20
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00