⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Amiens 0–0 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Aug 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win40%2.44
Draw31%3.20
Amiens win29%3.45

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens +0.2553%1.85
Sochaux +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.49
Over36%2.71

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Gaetan Weissbeck · Sochaux
32'🟨Emmanuel Lomotey · Amiens
60'🟨Joseph Lopy · Sochaux
67'🟨Emmanuel Lomotey · Amiens
67'🟥Emmanuel Lomotey · Amiens
70'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Sochaux
75'🟨Joseph Lopy · Sochaux
75'🟥Joseph Lopy · Sochaux
90'🟨Hermann Tebily · Sochaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots13
2On target3
5Corners7
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.610.52
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days81.00994.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.741.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.10
dominance (last 5)0.380.51
elo1437.391489.72
elo momentum (last 5)-40.745.35
eye test v1-0.890.50
eye trend v1-0.300.03
first sub minute (last 10)63.3057.10
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.630.79
league points3.009.00
league rank17.005.00
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6080.00
possession avg (last 5)47.6052.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg0.602.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.2013.80
skill v1-0.340.44
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.20
squad age24.8727.03
state index-0.99-0.00
sterile dominance v10.27-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.24
threat rate (last 5)0.180.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.20