← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, May 15, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Günsch
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 23% | 4.41 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 54% | 1.77 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.60 |
| Under | 39% | 2.58 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 55' | 🟨 | Prince-Osei Owusu · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tom Baumgart · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 72' | 🟨 | Michael Sollbauer · Dresden |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Bussmann · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brandon Borrello · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 896.00 | 195.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1387.31 | 1327.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.81 | -3.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 32.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 26.96 |
| state index | -1.02 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |