← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, May 15, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Günsch
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dresden win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 23% | 4.41 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 54% | 1.77 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.60 |
| Under | 39% | 2.58 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |