← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, May 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 49% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 |
| Dresden win | 25% | 4.04 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Karlsruhe −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Patrick Weihrauch · Dresden |
| 60' | 🟨 | Agyemang Diawusie · Dresden |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe |
| 69' | 🟨 | Patrick Weihrauch · Dresden |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kevin Broll · Dresden |
| 74' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Dresden |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 87' | 🟨 | Tim Knipping · Dresden |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michael Akoto · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 23 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 827.00 | 889.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1466.90 | 1383.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.26 | -8.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 26.52 |
| state index | -0.71 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |