← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, May 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Nurnberg win | 35% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.85 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Nurnberg +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.48 |
| Under | 35% | 2.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 29' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · Nurnberg |
| 38' | 🟨 | Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel |
| 39' | 🟨 | Christopher Schindler · Nurnberg |
| 41' | ⚽ | Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel |
| 63' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 219.00 | 676.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1489.85 | 1502.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.78 | -11.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 42.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.77 | 26.00 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |