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FC Schalke 04 3–2 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, May 7, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 win61%1.57
Draw21%4.75
FC St. Pauli 1910 win18%5.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 −152%1.86
FC St. Pauli 1910 −148%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.47
Under35%2.83

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Igor Matanović · FC St. Pauli 1910
15'🟨Afeez Aremu · FC St. Pauli 1910
17'⚽Igor Matanović · FC St. Pauli 1910
41'🟨Danny Latza · FC Schalke 04
46'🟨Jakov Medić · FC St. Pauli 1910
47'⚽ (pen)Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04
51'🟨Andreas Vindheim · FC Schalke 04
65'🟨Daniel-Kofi Kyereh · FC St. Pauli 1910
71'⚽Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04
78'⚽Rodrigo Zalazar · FC Schalke 04
81'🟥

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
22Shots5
10On target3
4Corners3
13Fouls16
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC Schalke 04FC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.730.55
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVELTINS-Arena
Marcel Beifus · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Blendi Idrizi · FC Schalke 04
90'🟨Igor Matanović · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Igor Matanović · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟥Igor Matanović · FC St. Pauli 1910
1.20
coach days67.00675.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.881.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.12
dominance (last 5)0.530.51
elo1587.541515.68
elo momentum (last 5)26.99-25.44
eye test v11.14-0.13
eye trend v1-0.19-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)53.5057.80
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.50
keeper form v10.750.67
league points59.0054.00
league rank1.005.00
matches since blank20.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)53.0058.80
rest days8.088.08
scorer concentration0.410.27
season ppg1.841.69
shot diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.0013.00
skill v10.100.66
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.803.80
squad age26.7826.09
state index0.58-0.35
sterile dominance v1-0.360.61
threat rate (last 10)0.320.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.310.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60