← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, May 6, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Darmstadt win | 45% | 2.14 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 29% | 3.32 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Darmstadt +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.51 |
| Under | 37% | 2.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand