← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Apr 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 70% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.50 |
| Ingolstadt win | 11% | 9.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Ingolstadt +1.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.54 |
| Under | 37% | 2.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 27' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 29' | ⚽ | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 57' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 68' | 🟨 | Florian Pick · Ingolstadt |
| 81' | ⚽ | Mikkel Kaufmann · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Audi-Sportpark |
| coach days | 150.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1372.21 | 1593.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.65 | 2.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 20.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 25.10 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |