← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Apr 29, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 78% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.00 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 8% | 12.06 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −2 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Holstein Kiel −2 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 1.33 |
| Under | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 23' | 🟨 | Simon Lorenz · Holstein Kiel |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Niclas Füllkrug · Holstein Kiel |
| 56' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 67' | 🟨 | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Anthony Jung · Holstein Kiel |
| 82' | 🟨 | Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | ⚽ | Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| 🟨 |
| Ahmet Arslan · Holstein Kiel |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 179.00 | 210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1622.69 | 1474.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.33 | 6.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 57.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 29.45 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |