← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Apr 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 37% | 2.67 |
| Heidenheim win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.49 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Heidenheim +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Simon Lorenz · Holstein Kiel |
| 56' | ⚽ | Simon Lorenz · Holstein Kiel |
| 62' | 🟨 | Oliver Hüsing · Heidenheim |
| 68' | 🟨 | Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim |
| 70' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andreas Geipl · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 204.00 | 5348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1476.01 | 1482.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.85 | -19.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 38.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.83 | 27.50 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |