← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Apr 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 54% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.84 |
| Regensburg win | 20% | 4.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hamburger SV +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 26' | 🟨 | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 37' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 46' | ⚽ | Carlo Boukhalfa · Regensburg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jan-Niklas Beste · Regensburg |
| 66' | ⚽ | Anssi Suhonen · Hamburger SV |
| 79' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 84' | 🟨 | Erik Wekesser · Regensburg |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 11 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josha Vagnoman · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | David Kinsombi · Hamburger SV |
| coach days | 1757.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1439.73 | 1581.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.26 | -9.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 39.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 67.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | 1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 24.43 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |