← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Apr 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 37% | 2.62 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.47 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dominik Franke · Ingolstadt |
| 54' | 🟨 | Michael Heinloth · Ingolstadt |
| 64' | 🟨 | Florian Pick · Ingolstadt |
| 69' | 🟨 | Rico Preißinger · Ingolstadt |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Audi-Sportpark |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 137.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1375.18 | 1516.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.76 | 10.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 45.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 19.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.66 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |