← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Apr 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.14 |
| Nurnberg win | 14% | 6.93 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Nurnberg −1.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Nikola Dovedan · Nurnberg |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lino Tempelmann · Nurnberg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| coach days | 167.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1606.38 | 1517.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.31 | 27.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 53.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 26.01 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |