← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Apr 10, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 51% | 1.85 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 25% | 3.95 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.75 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Hamburger SV +0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.56 |
| Under | 39% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Holstein Kiel |
| 24' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mario Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mikkel Kaufmann · Hamburger SV |
| 79' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 191.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1465.53 | 1582.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.05 | -32.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 34.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 25.52 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |