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SV Sandhausen 2–1 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Apr 10, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Hanslbauer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win40%2.41
Dresden win30%3.22
Draw30%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden −0.2553%1.85
SV Sandhausen −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Dennis Diekmeier · SV Sandhausen
7'⚽Dario Đumić · SV Sandhausen
40'🟨Chima Okoroji · SV Sandhausen
41'🟨Janik Bachmann · SV Sandhausen
41'🟨Paul Will · Dresden
44'🟨Michael Sollbauer · Dresden
48'⚽Erik Zenga · SV Sandhausen
64'🟨Christian Kinsombi · SV Sandhausen
65'⚽Tim Knipping · Dresden
76'🟨Morris Schröter · Dresden
89'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots10
6On target3
5Corners7
15Fouls8
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenDresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.650.62
cards avg (last 5)2.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
Maurice Deville
· SV Sandhausen
90'🟨Cebio Soukou · SV Sandhausen
coach days221.00861.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.207.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.772.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.440.42
elo1431.451384.49
elo momentum (last 5)18.22-9.21
eye test v1-0.36-0.29
eye trend v1-0.38-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)65.9051.50
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.770.76
league points31.0028.00
league rank15.0016.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win3.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)62.8070.60
possession avg (last 5)39.0041.40
rest days7.008.79
scorer concentration0.300.40
season ppg1.111.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.20
skill v1-1.95-1.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
squad age28.5726.09
state index-0.14-1.04
sterile dominance v1-1.27-1.27
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60