← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Tue, Apr 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 73% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.03 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 10% | 11.27 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −1.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −1.5 | 47% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.49 |
| Under | 36% | 2.69 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 48' | 🟨 | John-Patrick Strauss · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 75' | ⚽ | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 278.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1576.45 | 1336.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.28 | -12.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| league points | 42.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.92 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 28.36 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.76 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |