← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Apr 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 40% | 2.41 |
| Nurnberg win | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 36' | ⚽ | Maurice Malone · Heidenheim |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 87' | ⚽ | Manuel Schäffler · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 5328.00 | 641.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1506.27 | 1513.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.67 | 50.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 42.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 15.75 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 25.53 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |