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Darmstadt 3–1 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Apr 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win59%1.64
Draw23%4.66
Holstein Kiel win18%5.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel −151%1.93
Darmstadt −149%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.50
Under36%2.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Matthias Bader · Darmstadt
28'🟨Braydon Manu · Darmstadt
45'⚽Aaron Seydel · Darmstadt
49'⚽Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Holstein Kiel
50'⚽Braydon Manu · Darmstadt
58'🟨Marcel Schuhen · Darmstadt
72'🟨Patric Pfeiffer · Darmstadt
75'🟨Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel
86'🟨Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
21Shots8
5On target2
7Corners3
10Fouls8
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.420.61
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
coach days275.00183.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.512.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.620.48
elo1574.281474.07
elo momentum (last 5)-6.24-50.01
eye test v10.67-0.09
eye trend v1-0.18-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)64.2061.00
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.700.71
league points48.0034.00
league rank4.0012.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8079.20
possession avg (last 5)56.6056.80
rest days13.6712.96
scorer concentration0.260.21
season ppg1.781.26
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)19.4015.40
skill v10.370.69
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.60
squad age27.3026.72
state index0.24-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.280.16
threat rate (last 10)0.370.28
threat rate (last 3)0.320.28
threat rate (last 5)0.320.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40