← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Apr 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 59% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.66 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 18% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Darmstadt −1 | 49% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under | 36% | 2.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Matthias Bader · Darmstadt |
| 28' | 🟨 | Braydon Manu · Darmstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ | Aaron Seydel · Darmstadt |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Holstein Kiel |
| 50' | ⚽ | Braydon Manu · Darmstadt |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marcel Schuhen · Darmstadt |
| 72' | 🟨 | Patric Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel |
| 86' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 275.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1574.28 | 1474.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.24 | -50.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 48.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 13.67 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 26.72 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |