← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Apr 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 62% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.70 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 16% | 5.95 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.51 |
| Under | 37% | 2.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 275.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1590.40 | 1505.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.27 | -18.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 42.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 27.56 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.54 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |