← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Apr 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 51% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 |
| Dresden win | 22% | 4.43 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden +0.75 | 54% | 1.80 |
| FC Schalke 04 +0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Robin Becker · Dresden |
| 17' | 🟨 | Paul Will · Dresden |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ko Itakura · FC Schalke 04 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Dominick Drexler · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Paul Will · Dresden |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kerim Çalhanoğlu · FC Schalke 04 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Darko Churlinov · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 852.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1391.45 | 1560.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.46 | 13.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| league points | 28.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 12.17 | 13.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 26.42 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |