← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Mar 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 56% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 |
| Ingolstadt win | 20% | 4.96 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Ingolstadt −0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.70 |
| Under | 42% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 44' | 🟨 | Visar Musliu · Ingolstadt |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rico Preißinger · Ingolstadt |
| 68' | 🟨 | Merlin Röhl · Ingolstadt |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dominik Franke · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nico Antonitsch · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 170.00 | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1468.34 | 1369.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.54 | -30.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| league points | 31.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 26.91 |
| state index | -0.80 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |