← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Mar 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.61 |
| Dresden win | 21% | 4.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Dresden −0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 81' | 🟨 | Taylan Duman · Nurnberg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tim Knipping · Dresden |
| 88' | 🟨 | Manuel Schäffler · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 627.00 | 840.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1518.97 | 1386.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.67 | -0.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 45.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 25.96 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -1.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |