← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Mar 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Sather
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 36% | 2.75 |
| SV Sandhausen win | 35% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SV Sandhausen +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Hansa Rostock +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald |