← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Mar 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 37% | 2.67 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.56 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | 🟨 | Edgar Prib · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 85' | ⚽ | Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 88' | 🟨 | Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 46.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1507.69 | 1591.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.71 | 6.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| league points | 31.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 13.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 24.98 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |