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Karlsruhe 1–1 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Mar 13, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win44%2.20
Regensburg win29%3.43
Draw28%3.61

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe −0.2552%1.88
Regensburg −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Benjamin Goller · Karlsruhe
31'⚽Jan-Niklas Beste · Regensburg
70'⚽Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe
81'🟨Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe
85'🟨Benedikt Saller · Regensburg
90'🟨Aygün Yıldırım · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots15
4On target6
7Corners3
14Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.590.53
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
coach days771.001716.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.312.86
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.540.51
elo1485.081426.46
elo momentum (last 5)2.30-38.52
eye test v10.05-0.51
eye trend v10.31-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)64.0060.90
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.700.65
league points33.0032.00
league rank9.0010.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)52.6053.20
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.330.13
season ppg1.321.28
shot diff avg (last 5)2.400.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.8015.00
skill v1-0.05-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.00
squad age27.5026.10
state index0.02-0.91
sterile dominance v1-0.56-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.330.26
threat rate (last 5)0.320.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60