← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Mar 13, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Regensburg win | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Regensburg −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Benjamin Goller · Karlsruhe |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jan-Niklas Beste · Regensburg |
| 70' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe |
| 85' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aygün Yıldırım · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 771.00 | 1716.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1485.08 | 1426.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.30 | -38.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.10 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |