← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Mar 6, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 38% | 2.53 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 23' | ⚽ | Prince-Osei Owusu · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 48' | 🟨 | Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 53' | 🟨 | Prince-Osei Owusu · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 125.00 | 1709.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1348.07 | 1437.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.61 | -38.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.22 | 26.54 |
| state index | -1.67 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |