← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Mar 5, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 47% | 2.07 |
| Nurnberg win | 27% | 3.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Pascal Köpke · Nurnberg |
| 25' | ⚽ | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 33' | 🟨 | Pascal Köpke · Nurnberg |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 65' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 67' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lino Tempelmann · Nurnberg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 88' | ⚽ | Tim Handwerker · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 612.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1489.16 | 1602.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.77 | 24.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| league points | 39.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 7.29 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.27 | 25.46 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |