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FC Schalke 04 3–4 Hansa Rostock

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Mar 5, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Cortus

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 win51%1.94
Draw25%4.00
Hansa Rostock win24%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 −0.550%1.94
Hansa Rostock −0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Svante Ingelsson · Hansa Rostock
33'⚽Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04
40'⚽John Verhoek · Hansa Rostock
43'⚽Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04
56'⚽Pascal Breier · Hansa Rostock
83'⚽Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04
90'🟨Ryan Malone · Hansa Rostock
90'⚽Nils Fröling · Hansa Rostock

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
26Shots9
10On target4
4Corners2
9Fouls7
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC Schalke 04Hansa Rostock
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.780.73
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVELTINS-Arena
2.60
coach days4.001159.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.252.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.10
dominance (last 5)0.500.54
elo1558.541385.08
elo momentum (last 5)21.619.98
eye test v10.360.45
eye trend v1-0.68-0.42
first sub minute (last 10)56.2056.20
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.701.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v1—0.67
league points41.0025.00
league rank4.0016.00
matches since blank12.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8066.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2044.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.370.44
season ppg1.711.04
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.402.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.2014.40
skill v10.10-1.29
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.705.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.20
squad age27.1527.93
state index0.65-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.18-1.34
threat rate (last 10)0.350.33
threat rate (last 3)0.290.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20