← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Mar 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Hanslbauer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 42% | 2.36 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 31% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.72 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Uwe Hünemeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ron Schallenberg · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ahmet Arslan · Holstein Kiel |
| 54' | ⚽ | Maximilian Thalhammer · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marcel Mehlem · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 74' | ⚽ | Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jamilu Collins · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 154.00 | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1490.10 | 1506.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.05 | -31.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 27.89 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |