← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Feb 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 39% | 2.54 |
| Ingolstadt win | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.47 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt +0.25 | 55% | 1.75 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Daniel-Kofi Kyereh · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dennis Eckert · Ingolstadt |
| 37' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Simon Makienok · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marcel Hartel · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Afeez Aremu · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Florian Pick · Ingolstadt |
| 79' | 🟨 | Filip Bilbija · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Schmidt · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Audi-Sportpark |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 87.00 | 605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1404.93 | 1511.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.82 | -30.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 26.02 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |