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Ingolstadt 1–3 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Feb 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win39%2.54
Ingolstadt win33%3.00
Draw28%3.47

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt +0.2555%1.75
FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.2545%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Daniel-Kofi Kyereh · FC St. Pauli 1910
35'⚽Dennis Eckert · Ingolstadt
37'⚽Guido Burgstaller · FC St. Pauli 1910
55'⚽Simon Makienok · FC St. Pauli 1910
57'🟨Marcel Hartel · FC St. Pauli 1910
65'🟨Afeez Aremu · FC St. Pauli 1910
76'🟨Florian Pick · Ingolstadt
79'🟨Filip Bilbija · Ingolstadt
90'🟨Patrick Schmidt · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
10Shots12
3On target5
4Corners2
14Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.540.78
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi-Sportpark
1.60
coach days87.00605.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.606.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.17
dominance (last 5)0.420.44
elo1404.931511.69
elo momentum (last 5)21.82-30.08
eye test v1-0.670.24
eye trend v1-0.15-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)57.0057.60
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.571.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.50
keeper form v10.700.65
league points15.0041.00
league rank18.005.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0012.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2076.60
possession avg (last 5)40.8051.40
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.280.32
season ppg0.651.78
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.80-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6011.00
skill v1-1.260.10
sot against avg (last 5)6.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.80
squad age26.4126.02
state index-0.19-0.46
sterile dominance v1-1.230.12
threat rate (last 10)0.310.24
threat rate (last 3)0.320.24
threat rate (last 5)0.300.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40