← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Feb 25, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Siewer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 60% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 17% | 5.68 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.58 |
| Under | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marco Schuster · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ben Zolinski · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 70' | 🟨 | Marcel Correia · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 72' | 🟨 | Prince-Osei Owusu · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 89' | ⚽ | Kemal Ademi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcel Correia · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 25 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Benteler-Arena |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 239.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1512.44 | 1342.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.11 | -35.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 32.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 27.91 |
| state index | -0.43 | -1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |