← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Feb 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Nurnberg win | 31% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.63 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Tim Handwerker · Nurnberg |
| 29' | ⚽ | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 35' | 🟨 | Philip Heise · Karlsruhe |
| 39' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 55' | ⚽ | Benjamin Goller · Karlsruhe |
| 57' | 🟨 | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 59' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 76' | 🟨 | Benjamin Goller · Karlsruhe |
| 89' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Nurnberg |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 742.00 | 591.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1461.45 | 1478.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.41 | -30.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 26.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.55 | 26.65 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |