← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Feb 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 56% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.01 |
| Heidenheim win | 20% | 4.96 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Heidenheim −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Jonas Föhrenbach · Heidenheim |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 75' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 226.00 | 5278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1609.68 | 1523.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.28 | 15.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 26.74 |
| state index | 0.96 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |