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Hansa Rostock 1–2 SV Werder Bremen

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Feb 11, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Burda

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Werder Bremen win49%2.05
Draw27%3.51
Hansa Rostock win24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hansa Rostock +0.552%1.86
SV Werder Bremen +0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.77
Under45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Haris Duljević · Hansa Rostock
33'🟨Hanno Behrens · Hansa Rostock
41'🟨Lukas Fröde · Hansa Rostock
42'🟨Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen
54'⚽Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen
58'🟨Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen
63'🟨John Verhoek · Hansa Rostock
74'⚽Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen
80'🟨Damian Roßbach · Hansa Rostock
83'⚽Robin Meißner · Hansa Rostock
84'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots12
4On target3
4Corners3
19Fouls11
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHansa RostockSV Werder Bremen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.700.69
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOstseestadion
🟨
Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen
90'🟨Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen
1.60
coach days1137.00102.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.523.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.640.64
elo1399.411602.02
elo momentum (last 5)11.6151.74
eye test v10.981.25
eye trend v10.300.06
first sub minute (last 10)59.9066.90
form points (last 5)5.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.203.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.502.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.640.67
league points24.0038.00
league rank13.002.00
matches since blank1.0011.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8079.00
possession avg (last 5)45.4055.00
rest days5.216.21
scorer concentration0.480.29
season ppg1.141.81
shot diff avg (last 5)6.807.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.2018.80
skill v1-0.820.55
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.406.10
sot for avg (last 3)7.007.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.406.80
squad age28.0628.11
state index-0.101.17
sterile dominance v1-1.45-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.320.33
threat rate (last 3)0.400.35
threat rate (last 5)0.370.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.40