← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Feb 11, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 25% | 4.03 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Holstein Kiel +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Bussmann · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 18' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel |
| 33' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Sören Gonther · Holstein Kiel |
| 42' | 🟥 | Soufiane Messeguem · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 44' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel |
| 62' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nikola Trujić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Holstein Kiel |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jan Hochscheidt · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 88' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Dähne · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Holstein Kiel |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 102.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1356.70 | 1516.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.96 | 35.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.71 | 26.70 |
| state index | -1.44 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |