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Karlsruhe 0–2 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Tue, Feb 8, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win53%1.88
Draw25%4.08
SV Sandhausen win22%4.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe −0.556%1.76
SV Sandhausen −0.544%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.65
Under41%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Erich Berko · SV Sandhausen
45'⚽Pascal Testroet · SV Sandhausen
67'🟨Bashkim Ajdini · SV Sandhausen
73'🟨Patrick Drewes · SV Sandhausen
84'⚽ (og)Jérôme Gondorf · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots12
0On target6
2Corners0
8Fouls14
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.740.52
cards avg (last 5)1.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
coach days738.00160.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.340.40
elo1482.781386.35
elo momentum (last 5)-12.9818.47
eye test v1-0.68-0.76
eye trend v1-0.29-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)65.1058.90
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.710.70
league points26.0020.00
league rank11.0015.00
matches since blank16.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6070.80
possession avg (last 5)48.8043.60
rest days3.213.21
scorer concentration0.310.25
season ppg1.301.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-10.00-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.809.80
skill v1-0.44-0.94
sot against avg (last 5)8.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.20
squad age28.1228.22
state index-0.41-0.19
sterile dominance v1-0.05-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40