← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Feb 6, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Róbert Boženík · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 49' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonas Sterner · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 128.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1509.24 | 1485.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.22 | -17.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 25.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 27.14 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |