← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Feb 5, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 67% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.00 |
| Karlsruhe win | 13% | 7.18 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SV Werder Bremen −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Daniel O'Shaughnessy · Karlsruhe |
| 47' | 🟨 | Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe |
| 51' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 59' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 76' | ⚽ | Anthony Jung · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 96.00 | 735.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1596.51 | 1488.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.70 | 5.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.32 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 35.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 20.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 28.84 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |