← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Feb 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 |
| Ingolstadt win | 21% | 4.69 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Nurnberg −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Florian Pick · Ingolstadt |
| 17' | ⚽ | Dennis Eckert · Ingolstadt |
| 41' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · Ingolstadt |
| 49' | ⚽ | Patrick Schmidt · Ingolstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Manuel Schäffler · Nurnberg |
| 71' | 🟨 | Hans Nunoo Sarpei · Ingolstadt |
| 80' | ⚽ | Valmir Sulejmani · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 583.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1508.65 | 1369.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.79 | -4.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 26.63 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |