← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Jan 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 39% | 2.55 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.42 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Regensburg −0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 12' | ⚽ | Scott Kennedy · Regensburg |
| 35' | ⚽ | Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 58' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabian Reese · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 1667.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1476.08 | 1498.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.62 | 19.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 27.43 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |