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SC Paderborn 07 3–4 SV Werder Bremen

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Jan 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Werder Bremen win47%2.05
Draw27%3.89
SC Paderborn 07 win26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 +0.551%1.92
SV Werder Bremen +0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.59
Under40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen
15'⚽ (pen)Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07
24'🟨Marco Schuster · SC Paderborn 07
35'🟨Philipp Klement · SC Paderborn 07
35'⚽Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen
38'⚽Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07
56'⚽Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07
59'⚽Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen
66'⚽Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen
77'🟨Anthony Jung · SV Werder Bremen
84'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
16Shots19
8On target8
3Corners12
11Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07SV Werder Bremen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.570.73
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBenteler-Arena
🟨
Uwe Hünemeier · SC Paderborn 07
86'⚽Ömer Toprak · SV Werder Bremen
1.80
coach days205.0082.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.802.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.450.63
elo1537.741586.18
elo momentum (last 5)-21.8335.01
eye test v1-0.461.07
eye trend v1-0.390.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.2062.40
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.202.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.003.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.760.68
league points30.0032.00
league rank9.006.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6080.00
possession avg (last 5)54.6054.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.420.28
season ppg1.581.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.406.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6017.20
skill v10.390.62
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.206.40
squad age27.9027.74
state index-0.161.05
sterile dominance v10.37-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.260.31
threat rate (last 3)0.230.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.802.00